Macro Occasions & Information

FX Information As we speak
RISK OFF
The 10-year Treasury yields are down -Zero.8bp to 1.637%, whereas these of the JGB have fallen by -1.4bp to -Zero.341% after falling to the bottom stage since 2016 throughout of the assembly.
Threat aversion continued to dominate in the course of the Asian session and the inventory markets moved south after the S & P misplaced greater than 1.5% on Monday.
Bond markets remained sturdy as traders continued to depend on new central financial institution measures as a result of commerce issues, Brexit dangers and political turmoil in Hong Kong, including to threat. US 30-year charges are approaching their lowest lows, with Argentina more likely to default, it will solely reinforce the flight to high quality, which is experiencing a pointy flattening of the curve.
In Asia, the intensification of political protests in Hong Kong stays topical and the yield on 10-year Australian bonds has opened at its all-time low. China's 10-year price has fallen under Three% for the primary time since 2016, earlier than stabilizing barely above the three% mark.
GOLD broke the $ 1520 mark (the best since April 2103) and USOil traded at $ 54.81 a barrel.
Maps of the day

The Nook of Technicians
USD : The greenback has been comparatively reasonably agency in opposition to most different main currencies aside from the Australian greenback, which has barely outperformed thus far. The yen has weakened, correcting a number of the latest beneficial properties generated by secure havens, regardless of a tumble on Wall Road yesterday and among the many Asian inventory markets right this moment, though the Japanese forex has recovered from its lows to enter the interbank market in London. The checklist of s of concern will not be missing, together with demonstrations in favor of democracy in Hong Kong and a crash of the Argentine peso following the poor efficiency of President Macri in favorable market elections . presidential primaries. Singapore additionally considerably decreased its GDP forecast for 2019 (between Zero% and 1%, from 1.5% to 2.5%), because of the deteriorating financial scenario World. The scenario in Hong Kong, in addition to the commerce wars between China and South Korea and Japan and Brexit, all obtained a point out. The United States. the yield curve is now at its lowest stage since 200 7, which many contemplate to be an alleged recession, or a minimum of a significant recession threat . GS analysts additionally stated that the commerce battle between the USA and China would have a extra detrimental affect on the US financial system than beforehand thought. A ballot of Reuters highlighted a brand new likelihood file assigned by analysts to the existence of a no-deal Brexit at the moment listed to 35% . in opposition to 30% within the earlier survey. Within the midst of all this, the PBoC has set the yuan at a brand new low of practically eleven years in opposition to the greenback close to noon, at 7.0326, up from 7.0211 yesterday. Given the local weather of threat, the yen is anticipated to seek out new demand in London, with shorts doubtless AUD-JPY and GBP-JPY
Primary Macro Occasions As we speak
Common earnings and ILO unemployment price (in GBP, GMT at 08:30) – The ILO unemployment price (over three months) is anticipated to stay at Three.eight%, with common earnings falling by Three% , 5% over one yr three months to June within the ex-bonus, and three.1% within the bonus, from Three.four% y / y in July.
ZEW Financial Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The financial local weather for August is projected at -22.Three vs. -24.5 final month, the indicator of the present scenario in Germany having change into unfavourable. The general studying of the euro space is anticipated to enhance barely from -20.Three to -Three.1.
Shopper Value Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The US CPI is anticipated to rise Zero.2% in July with a Zero.2% rise in base costs, after respective values ​​of Zero.1% and Zero.Three% in June. As anticipated, beneficial properties would end in a year-on-year complete enhance of 1.6%, secure from 1.6% in June, whereas base costs are anticipated to extend by 2.1%, a secure tempo in opposition to to June. General, the inflation outlook stays favorable, though the rebound in oil costs, which reversed quickly in Might, led to modifications on the finish of the primary and the start of the second quarter.
Ranges of Help and Resistance
Click on right here to entry the Financial Calendar
Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This doc is supplied as normal advertising and marketing communications for informational functions solely and doesn’t represent an unbiased analysis on investments. Nothing on this communication incorporates, or ought to be deemed to include, funding recommendation, funding recommendation or solicitation to purchase or promote a monetary instrument. All data supplied comes from dependable s. Any data containing a sign of previous efficiency will not be a assure or a dependable indicator of future efficiency. Customers acknowledge that any funding in leveraged merchandise is characterised by a sure diploma of uncertainty and that any funding of this nature carries a excessive stage of threat, for which the customers are solely accountable. We settle for no legal responsibility for any loss ensuing from any funding made on the idea of the knowledge supplied on this communication. This communication should not be reproduced or distributed with out our prior written permission.
Earlier Publish Replace of FX – August 12
With greater than 25 years of expertise within the service of London-based skilled organizations in London, Stuart Cowell is a powerful advocate of simplicity, probity and understanding of the hyperlinks between information, graphics and sentiment to supply buying and selling alternatives in all areas of the world. asset courses and in all time frames.

Category: